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Ceren Kolsarici

Director (Scotiabank Center for Customer Analytics), Associate Professor & Ian R. Friendly Fellow of Marketing
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Overview

Dr. Ceren Kolsarici is a Director (Scotiabank Center for Customer Analytics), Associate Professor & Ian R. Friendly Fellow of Marketing at Smith School of Business. Dr. Kolsarici specializes in Artificial Intelligence, Big Data and analytics applications on domains including advertising, mobile and digital marketing, diffusion of new products, pharmaceuticals and financial sector. 

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Academic Area

  • Management Analytics
  • Marketing

Interest Topics

  • Analytics & AI
  • Brand
  • Communication
  • Marketing & Sales
  • Retail

Highlights

The Anatomy of the Advertising Budget Decision: How Analytics and Heuristics Drive Sales Performance

Every year companies such as IBM, Deloitte and Accenture release results from their CMO surveys summarizing executives’ views on current marketing processes, best practices, challenges, opportunities and predictions about the future. With respect to the advertising budgeting process, surveys report that managers use a combination of analytical and heuristic rules in their decisions. While some managers report heavier use of analytical methods, others report relying mostly on heuristic rules such as A/S ratio and competitive parity. The surveys also reveal considerable differences in decision making across industries and brands. The challenging question is, without clear indication on ad effectiveness, and suitability of various budgeting decision rules in determining ad spend, which combinations of methods managers should use in the budgeting decision. Should they set aside money for experimentation? In what proportions do various analytical and heuristic rules contribute to the budgeting decision? Is there room for improvement in how managers allocate their efforts across these rules? In her recent research published in Journal of Marketing Research, Dr. Kolsarici and her colleagues set out to answer these questions. Their analysis reveals that advertising budgeting is a complex process, requiring managers to make decisions under uncertainty of ad effectiveness. They show that brands in emerging markets, niche categories or with new ad campaigns where advertising effectiveness uncertainty is high, benefit significantly by relying more heavily on analytics (vs. heuristics) in their ad budgeting decision process.

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Faculty Details

Profile

Full Bio

Dr. Ceren Kolsarici is an Associate Professor, Ian R. Friendly Fellow, Scotiabank Scholar and is the Director of the Scotiabank Center for Customer Analytics at the Smith School of Business.

Dr. Kolsarici specializes in Artificial Intelligence, Big Data and analytics applications on domains including advertising, mobile and digital marketing, diffusion of new products, pharmaceuticals and financial sector. Her current projects focus on design and evaluation of integrated marketing communications campaigns, media selection and scheduling, budgeting and development of advertising creative strategies. She develops new models and methods to improve managerial decisions and marketing applications in practice, by helping managers better understand how marketing affects firm performance and designing marketing programs that maximize profitability.

Dr. Kolsarici’s research has been published in leading journals such as Management Science, Journal of Marketing Research, International Journal of Research in Marketing and Journal of Advertising, among others. She has been invited to present her work at institutions such as UC Davis, Northwestern University, Erasmus University, Tilburg University, Koc University as well as national and international conferences in Australia, Belgium, US, the Netherlands, Germany, Portugal, France and Turkey.

Ceren serves in the Editorial Review Board of Journal of Marketing Research. She has received several awards and grants for her scholarly contributions including the QSB New Researcher Achievement Award, MSI’s Top Young Scholar Nomination, NSERC, SSHRC, FQRSC and other external funds valuing over $1.2 million, American Marketing Association-Sheth Consortium Fellowship, as well as nominations for national (SSHRC) and provincial (ADESAQ) doctoral dissertation awards.

She holds a PhD in Marketing (2009) from McGill University a B.Sc. in Industrial Engineering (2002) from Middle East Technical University, and an MBA (2004) from Bilkent University. Dr. Kolsarici teaches Artificial Intelligence, Advertising, Social Media and Marketing Analytics in Commerce, MBA, MMA and PhD programs. She also continues to do consulting and executive training for various companies in Canada and internationally.

Academic Degrees

PhD, Marketing
Desautels Faculty of Management, McGill University (2009)

M.B.A., Marketing
University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark (2004)

B.S., Industrial Engineering
Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey (2002)

Academic Experience

Smith School of Business, Queen’s University
Associate Professor of Marketing (2015 - Present)
Assistant Professor of Marketing (2009-2015)

Publications

Journal Articles

The Anatomy of the Advertising Budgeting Decision: How Analytics and Heuristics Combine to Shape the Sales Response (2020), Forthcoming, Journal of Marketing Research (with Demetrios Vakratsas and Prasad Naik)

The Financial Advice Puzzle: The Role of Consumer Heterogeneity in Advisor Choice (2020), Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 54, 102014 (with Christopher Amaral)

Synergistic, Antagonistic and Asymmetric Media Interactions (2018), Journal of Advertising, 47(3), 282-300 (with Demetrios Vakratsas)

Correcting for Misspecification In Parameter Dynamics To Improve Forecast Accuracy With Adaptively Estimated Models (2015). Management Science, 61(10), 2495-2513 (with Demetrios Vakratsas).

Dynamic Effectiveness of Advertising and Word-of-Mouth in the Sequential Distribution of Short Life Cycle Products (2012). Journal of Marketing Research, 49(4), 469-86 (with Norris I. Bruce, Natasha Zhang Foutz)

Category Versus Brand-Level Advertising Messages in a Highly Regulated Environment (2010). Journal of Marketing Research, 47(6), 1078-1089 (with Demetrios Vakratsas). 

A Dual-Market Diffusion Model for a New Prescription Pharmaceutical (2008). International Journal of Research in Marketing, 25(4), 282-93 (with Demetrios Vakratsas).

Other Publications

How Direct-to-Consumer-Advertising Influences Prescription Pharmaceutical Markets (2014). In M. Ding, J. Eliashberg & S. Stremersch (Eds), Innovation and Marketing in the Pharmaceutical Industry (651-672), International Series in Quantitative Marketing, New York, NY: Springer. (with Demetrios Vakratsas).

Do Multi-Media Campaigns Pay-off? Insights from MSI, Fall 2011 issue. Edited by Kim Alan Pederson. (with Demetrios Vakratsas).

Flexible Models of Integrated Marketing Communications Effects (2008). Doctoral dissertation, McGill University, Montreal, QC, CA

Performance Comparison of a Multi-Component System Based on Reliability, Availability and Maintainability and Life Cycle Costing Analysis (2002). B.S. Thesis. Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey. (with Isil Yildirim Salih O.Koksal., Ongun Saracbasi and Erdem Yakut)

In the Media

Radio

“Reviving an Iconic Brand: How will HBC benefit from the Saks takeover?” NewsTalk 770 with Angela Kokott, Calgary, July 29, 2013

“How will Saks merger change the Canadian retail landscape?” CJOB Radio, Winnipeg, July 29, 2013

“Canada vs. U.S.: The differences in Blackberry’s marketing efforts on both sides of the border,” Gary Doyle Show, 570 News Radio, Kitchener, April 1, 2013 

“Blackberry 10: A Comeback or a Bust?” Afternoon Drive with Karen Black, CJOB Radio, Winnipeg, March 28, 2013

“Ads or word of mouth: When are these approaches most effective for Blackberry?” News Talk with David Kirton, CKOM Radio, Saskatoon, March 28, 2013

Printed Media Citations

In Search of Advertising’s Multimedia Sweet Spot. Smith Insight Series, June 19, 2018. Edited by Alan Morantz

Dynamic Story: Torquing The Hollywood Promo Machine. Smith Insight Series, March 22, 2017. Edited by Alan Morantz

Weighing Big Pharma’s Consumer Pitch. Smith Insight Series, March 31, 2015. Edited by Anna Sharratt

“Viewpoint: Trick or Tweet — Twitter could avoid Facebook's market failure,” Centretown News, October 11, 2013

“Wooing the digital generation is key to cosmetic company’s future,” Financial Post, National Post, Saskatoon

Star Phoenix & Vancouver Sun, August 04,2013

“Hudson Bay rolls the dice on Saks,” Toronto Star, July 30, 2013

“Hudson Bay to Bring Saks to Canada in $2.9 Billion Takeover,” CBC News, July 29, 2013

“FOMO! Millennials overspending thanks to social media,” Yahoo Finance, March 11, 2015

Television

“Lay of the Land: What’s happening in Canadian retail? How competitive is it really getting?" Global News, Global National, July 29,2013

“Saks coming to Canada” CBC News, CBC’s The National, July 29, 2013.

Teaching

Teaching Experience

Professional Graduate Programs

  • Artificial Intelligence in Marketing, Smith School of Business, MMAI Program (2019)
  • Marketing Analytics, Smith School of Business, MMA Program (2014-2019)
  • Marketing Analytics, UC Davis Graduate School of Management (2015)
  • Models for Marketing Strategy, Bilkent University MBA Program (2011)

M.Sc. & Ph.D. 

  • Quantitative Models in Marketing – I, Koc University (2017)                                   
  • Quantitative Models in Marketing – I, Smith School of Business (2014-2019)
  • Quantitative Models in Marketing – II, Smith School of Business (2015-2019)

Undergraduate

  • Marketing Analytics, Koc University (2016)
  • Marketing Analytics, Smith School of Business (2015 -2018)
  • Marketing Communications, Smith School of Business (2012-2015)
  • Introduction to Marketing, Smith School of Business (2010-2013)
  • Introduction to Marketing, McGill University (2008)

Student Supervision

  • Philip Kim, Supervisor, MSc. Program (in progress)
  • Simon Chang, Supervisor, Ph.D. Program (in progress)
  • Chukwimaobi Onuoha, Supervisor, MSc. Program, (Degree Granted, 2019)  - “Sales Promotions: An Analysis of the Impact of Consumer Sociodemographic Factors on Promotion-Induced Consumption Rate” 
  • Onur Inegol, Supervisor, MSc. Program, (Degree Granted, 2019)  - “Measuring Channel Effectiveness of Marketing Effort on Sales and Physician Funnel Progression: The Case of Pharmaceutical Market” 
  • Gizem Senkal, Supervisor, MSc. Program, (Degree Granted, 2018) – “The Moderating Role of Engagement on Mobile App Adoption” 
  • Aaron Zhou, Dissertation Committee Member, Ph.D. Program (In progress) 
  • Christopher Amaral, Supervisor, Ph.D. Program (In progress)
  • Alex Au, Supervisor, Commerce Program (2017) - “Optimal Models for Live Media Influencer Marketing” 
  • Melanie Adler, Committee Member, M.Sc. Program (Degree Granted, 2017) - “Is Redeeming a Reward Making Customers Less Loyal: an Analytical and Empirical Investigation of Consumer Behaviour in Loyalty Programs” 
  • June Lee, Supervisor, M.Sc. Program (Degree Granted, 2015) - “Ebbs and Flows of Marketing Communications: The Asymmetric Effect of Promotion Shocks on Firm Sales” 
  • Roni Krakover, Supervisor, M.Sc. Program (Degree Granted, 2013)  - “Can Small Sellers Play with the Big Shots? Optimizing Customer Experience in an E-Commerce Environment.”
  • Zahra Shariffosanabi, Supervisor, M.Sc. Program (Degree Granted, 2012) - “The Optimal Advertising Budget Allocation in a Novel Category: The Case of Toyota Prius Hybrid

Interests

Marketing Analytics, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Advertising Management, Social Media Marketing, Brand Management, Quantitative Models in Marketing

Visiting Positions

Visiting Associate Professor
Koc University
2016-2017

Visiting Associate Professor
UC Davis, Graduate School of Management
2015–2016

Presentations

Conference Presentations (* indicates refereed)

Dynamics of Firm-Consumer Interactions on Social Media Platforms

  • INFORMS Conference, October 2021

Leader of the Pack, or Left in the Dust? How Effectively You Use Data Analytics and AI Just Might Determine Where Your Company Ends Up!

  • Big Data and AI Conference, Toronto, October 2021

Optimizing Pricing Delegation to External Sales Forces via Commissions: An Empirical Investigation,

  • Marketing Science, Rochester, NY, June 2021 (Virtual Conference)

The Impact of Varying Consumer Credit Pricing by Consumer Risk: An Empirical Investigation using Indirect Lending

  • Marketing Dynamics Conference (June 5-8, 2019), College Park, Maryland *
  • Marketing Science Conference (June 22-24, 2019), Rome, Italy *  
  • E&T Symposium (May 16-17, 2019), Vancouver, Canada *

On the Other Side of Customer Loyalty: Dynamic Campaign Optimization in the Presence of Competition (with Jue Wang and Mikhail Nediak) 

  • Marketing Science Conference (June 14-16, 2018), Temple, PA    

Dynamic Campaign Optimization (with Jue Wang and Mikhail Nediak)

  • EMAC Conference (May 28-31,2019), Hamburg, Germany, Invited Presentation, Special Session *
  • Winter AMA Conference (Feb 22-24, 2019), Austin, TX, Invited Presentation, Special Session * 
  • E&T Symposium (May 17-18, 2018), Guelph, Canada *
  • Marketing Dynamics Conference (July 9-11, 2018), Dallas, TX *
  • INFORMS Revenue Management and Pricing Conference (June 20-21, 2018)

The Impact of Discriminatory Pricing Based on Customer Risk: An Empirical Investigation using Indirect Lending through Retail Networks. (with Christopher Amaral and Mikhail Nediak)  

  • Marketing Dynamics Conference (July 9-11, 2018), Dallas, TX *
  • Marketing Science Conference (June 14-16, 2018), Temple, PA  
  • E&T Symposium (May 17-18, 2018), Guelph, Canada (Second place for the best poster) 
  • INFORMS Revenue Management and Pricing Conference (June 20-21, 2018)

Perfectionism and Risk Perception in the Market Place: How Perfectionism Affect Consumers’ Risk Perceptions and Choice? (with Gizem Ceylan-Hopper, Deborah MacInnis) 

  • Marketing Science Conference (June 22-24, 2019), Rome, Italy * Invited Presentation, special Session
  • ACR European Conference (June 21-23,2018), Ghent, Belgium*

The Investor Puzzle: The Role of Consumer Heterogeneity in Motivation to Seek Financial Advice  (with Christopher Amaral) – under various titles

  • INFORMS (October 22-25, 2017), Houston, TX
  • Marketing Science (June 1-7, 2017), Los Angeles, CA

Understanding the Role of Synergy Dynamics in the Process of Hierarchy of Effects. (with Kay Peters, Prasad Naik and Johannes Wenzel)

  • Marketing Science (June 1-7, 2017), Los Angeles, CA. Invited Presentation in the HOE Special Session
  • EMAC (May 24-27, 2016), Oslo, Norway*

When the Whole Can be Less Than Sum of Its Parts: The Complexity of Multi-Media Effects. (with Demetrios Vakratsas) – under various titles

  • Marketing Dynamics Conference (July 6-9, 2016), Hamburg, Germany *
  • UTD-FORMS Conference (February 18-20, 2016), Dallas, TX *
  • POMS Conference, (May 8-11, 2015). Washington, DC
  • Marketing Science Conference (June 12-14, 2008)., Vancouver, BC

Uncovering Managers’ Black-Box: The Role of Analytics vs. Heuristics in Advertising Budgeting Decisions (with Demetrios Vakratsas) – under various titles

  • E&T Symposium (July 5, 2015), Toronto, Canada. Invited Presentation
  • Marketing Science Conference (July 11-13, 2013), Istanbul, Turkey
  • Marketing Dynamics Conference (May 30 – June 1, 2013), Chapel Hill, NC.*

Correcting for Misspecification In Parameter Dynamics To Improve Forecast Accuracy With Adaptively Estimated Models, (with Demetrios Vakratsas) – under various titles

  • Marketing Dynamics Conference (August 21-23, 2014), Las Vegas, NV *
  • EURO INFORMS (July 1-4, 2013),  Rome, Italy
  • European Marketing Academy Conference (June 1-4, 2010), Copenhagen, Denmark.  Invited Presentation in the Pharmaceutical Marketing Special Session
  • Marketing Science Conference (June 17-19, 2010), Cologne, Germany. Invited Presentation in the Pharmaceutical Marketing Special Session
  • Marketing Dynamics Conference (August 27-29, 2009)., NYC, NY, USA. *

A Dual-Market Diffusion Model for a New Prescription Pharmaceutical (with Demetrios Vakratsas)

  • European Marketing Academy (EMAC)  (May 27-30, 2008) Invited Presentation, Brighton, UK.

Dynamic Market-Level Effects of Highly Regulated Advertising Messages. (with Demetrios Vakratsas) – under various titles

  • Marketing Dynamics Conference (August 22-24, 2007), Groningen, Netherlands *
  • European Marketing Academy (EMAC) (May 22-25, 2007)., Reykjavik, Iceland *
  • UTD-FORMS Conference (March 1-3, 2007), Dallas, TX *

Research

Interests

Substantive

Advertising Effectiveness, Consumer Purchase Funnel, Firm Financial Performance, Mobile Marketing, Pharmaceutical Marketing, Long-range Market Response Forecasting

Methodological

Artificial Intelligence, Econometric Modeling, Non-parametric Estimation, Kalman Filters, Particle Filters, Bayesian Methods

Awards

Fellowships

Ian R. Friendly Fellow of Marketing (2nd term), $30,000 (2017-2019)

Ian R. Friendly Fellow of Marketing, $40,000 (2013-2016)

AMA Sheth Foundation Doctoral Consortium Fellow (2008)

Marketing Science Conference Doctoral Colloquium Fellow, Pittsburgh (2007)

McGill Graduate Studies Fellowship, McGill University, $5,000 (2006)

Desautels Faculty of Management Fellowship, McGill University, $16,000 (2004-2006)

Teaching Awards

Dean’s Teaching Recognition, Koc University, Istanbul (2016)

Excellence in Teaching Award, McGill University (2008)

Research Awards

General Research Grants Award, Smith School of Business, Queen’s University, $6,000 (2016)

New Researcher Achievement Award (2013)

General Research Grants Award, SSB, Queen’s University, $5,500 (2011-2012)

General Research Grants Award, SSB, Queen’s University, $4,128 (2009-2010)

Other Awards

Scotiabank Scholar, $30,000 (2016-2018)

Nominee for MSI’s Top Young Scholar Program (2012)

Nominee for SSHRC doctoral dissertation award, McGill University (2008)

Nominee for ADESAQ doctoral dissertation award, McGill University (2008)

Full MBA tuition waiver, Bilkent University, Faculty of Business Administration (2002-2004)

Ranked in the top 0.01th percentile nationally in the National University Entrance Examination (1998)

Ranked 1st in graduation from Cankaya Milli Piyango High School (1998)

Grants & Funding

The Impact of Discriminatory Pricing Based on Consumer Risk: An Empirical Investigation using Indirect Lending through Retail Networks (2018)
OCE Talent Edge | $10,000

Dynamic state-space model to investigate the role of multi-media advertising in consumers’ journey through the purchase funnel (2018)
OCE Talent Edge | $10,000

Optimal Allocation of Advertising Resources in Multiproduct Firms (2016-2020)
SSHRC Insight Grant | $110,965

Understanding and Communicating the Value of Financial Advice (2014-2017)
CSIRG | $40,000

Dynamic Allocation of Multimedia Advertising Budgets, Principal Investigator (2011-2015)
SSHRC | $77,249

Tracking Consumer Attitudes Towards New Products for Health and Wellbeing in Canada (2010-2013)
FQRSC-TRG | $482,240

Complexity of Integrated Marketing Communication Effects (2007-2009)
FQRSC | $27,000

Large-scale Customer Analytics Methodologies in Financial Services. PI: Yuri Levin (2017-2021)
NSERC-CRD | $900,000

Service

Professional Service

  • Member of the Editorial Review Board of the International Journal of Research in Marketing (2021-2024)
  • Member of the Editorial Review Board of the Journal of Marketing Research (2020-2023)
  • Member of the organizing committee of the Marketing Dynamics Conference (2016-2018)
  • Chair, INFORMS International Conference, Marketing Operations Interface Session (2015)
  • Referee for: Journal of Marketing, Journal of Marketing Research, Production and Operations Management, European Journal of Operations Research, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, European Journal of Marketing, International Journal of Advertising, Canadian Journal of Administrative Sciences, California Management Review, European Marketing Academy Conference, Production and Operations Management, Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada 

University Service

  • Organizer, Marketing Area Seminar Series (2010- 2012, 2013-2014, 2017-2019)
  • Graduate Teaching Excellence and Supervision Awards Committee, SSB, Ad Hoc (2018)
  • Academic Progress Committee, MBA/MOM, Ad Hoc (2018)
  • Dean’s Advisory Committee: Associate Dean – Research, PhD/MSc Programs (2017)
  • Principal's Advisory Committee: Vice-Provost and Dean of the School of Graduate Studies and Postdoctoral Affairs (2017-2018)
  • MSc/PhD Committee, SSB (2017-2019)
  • Research Excellence Awards Committee, SSB, Ad Hoc (2017)
  • Panel Speaker, Increasing Research Productivity, SSB (2016)
  • Organizer, SSB Doctoral Consortium, “Building your Research Portfolio” Session (2014)
  • Queen’s University, USSRF Adjudication Committee (2014)
  • Co-organizer, Doctoral Consortium, “Career Management” Session, Co-organizer (2013)
  • RTP Committee, SSB (2013-2014, 2016-2017)
  • Research Committee, SSB (2012, 2013, 2014)
  • Queen’s Micro Credit Challenge Mentor (QMCC) (2012,2013)
  • Faculty PSE Reader, SSB (2011- 2013)
  • Library Committee, SSB (2010-2011)
  • Mentor, MSc student Zahra Shariffosanabi (2011-2012)
  • Mentor, MSc student Jude Fiorillo (2010-2011)
  • Judge, Inter-Collegiate Business Competition (ICBC) (2010, 2011)

Memberships in Professional Organizations

  • POM (Production and Operations Management)
  • The Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)
  • Marketing Science Institute (MSI)
  • Informs Society for Marketing Science (ISMS)
  • American Marketing Association (AMA)
  • European Marketing Academy (EMAC)

Community Service

  • Member of the Advisory Board, Canada’s Next Top Ad Exec Competition (2018-2019)
  • Mentor, Women in Analytics, (June 2017)
  • Panel Speaker, Women Inspiring Women (February 2017)
  • Judge, Canada’s Next Top Ad Exec Finals (2017, 2018)
  • Academic Judge, Canada’s Next Top Ad Exec (2016-2018)
  • Invited Speaker, Big Data Meets Big Decisions, Scotiabank Center for Customer Insights (2016)